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Topic: seniors are higher risk to get breast cancer?

Forum: High Risk for Breast Cancer — Due to family history, genetics, or other factors.

Posted on: Jan 22, 2008 02:25AM - edited Jan 22, 2008 02:27AM by Hindsfeet

Hindsfeet wrote:

Self breast examination and mammogram more important as you age

Despite the fact that women over the age of 65 run a much higher risk of developing breast cancer, a survey done last year by the National Institutes of Health shows that they are not as concerned about developing breast cancer as they were when they were younger. A woman's chance of being diagnosed with breast cancer is:
  • by age 30. . . 1 out of 2,212
  • by age 40. . . 1 out of 235
  • by age 50. . . 1 out of 54
  • by age 60. . . 1 out of 23
  • by age 70. . . 1 out of 14
  • by age 80. . . 1 out of 10
  • Ever. . . . . . . 1 out of 8
The 1 in 8 figure means that, if current rates stay constant, a female born today has a 1 in 8 chance of developing breast cancer sometime during her life. There are numerous risk factors that increase the risk of developing breast cancer, including family history, reproductive history and according to recent research treatment for thyroid cancer.

Despite these other risk factors, age remains the greatest risk factor. The longer you live the greater your risk of developing breast cancer. 

I was looking for something else and came across this article...I thought pre-menopause was more at risk....makes sense in that as you age your cells lack the ability to copy, more likely to mutate.

Dx 6/13/2014, IDC, 1cm, Stage IV, Grade 3, mets, ER+/PR+, HER2+
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Jan 30, 2008 12:11PM Blinx wrote:

Thank you for posting these statistics. When I was first diagnosed, I had to search for a while before I found this data. I had always heard the "1 in 8" warning (was there an ad campaign a few years ago that kept pushing that?), and assumed that as I looked around any gathering of women of various ages, I thought that, gee, 12.5% of us (1 in 8) will be diagnosed with bc at some point. Not so at all!!

It is remarkable, though, the difference in numbers at ages 30, 40, and 50.

Dx July 2007 DCIS Grade 3 (at age 46); Lumpectomy Sept 2007. ER+/PR-; Finished 33 rad tx Jan 2008. 3.5 years of Tamoxifen then quit..
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Jan 30, 2008 04:25PM leaf wrote:

The risk rate does vary from year to year In the 1970s, the lifetime risk of being diagnosed with breast cancer in the United States was just under 10 percent (often expressed as "1 in 10"). The estimated lifetime risk has generally been rising gradually since then; this year, the estimated risk decreased slightly.

The last five annual SEER reports show these estimates of lifetime risk:

13.4 percent for 1997 through 1999 ("1 in 7.45," often expressed as "1 in 7")
13.5 percent for 1998 through 2000 ("1 in 7.40," often expressed as "1 in 7")
13.4 percent for 1999 through 2001 ("1 in 7.47," often expressed as "1 in 7")
13.2 percent for 2000 through 2002 ("1 in 7.56," often expressed as "1 in 8")
12.7 percent for 2001 through 2003 ("1 in 7.87," often expressed as "1 in 8")
SEER statisticians expect some variability from year to year. Slight changes, such as the one reported this year, may be explained by a variety of factors, including minor changes in risk factor levels in the population, slight changes in screening rates, or just random variability inherent in the data.

The estimated probability of being diagnosed with breast cancer for specific age groups and for specific time periods is generally more informative than lifetime probabilities. Estimates by decade of life are less influenced by changes in life expectancy and incidence rates. The SEER report estimates the risk of developing breast cancer in 10-year age intervals (1). These calculations factor in the proportion of women who live to each age. In other words, they take into account that not all women live to older ages, when breast cancer risk becomes the greatest.

A woman's chance of being diagnosed with breast cancer is:

from age 30 through age 39 . . . . . . 0.43 percent (often expressed as "1 in 233")
from age 40 through age 49 . . . . . . 1.44 percent (often expressed as "1 in 69")
from age 50 through age 59 . . . . . . 2.63 percent (often expressed as "1 in 38")
from age 60 through age 69 . . . . . . 3.65 percent (often expressed as "1 in 27")
These probabilities are averages for the whole population. An individual woman's breast cancer risk may be higher or lower, depending on a number of factors, including her family history, reproductive history, race/ethnicity, and other factors that are not yet fully understood. To calculate an individual's estimated risk, see the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool at on the Internet.

But an article written said the chances of the Gail model, and a model that included other factors such as breast density, predicting one's breast cancer risk **FOR AN INDIVIDUAL** was "better than a coin toss-but not by much." . They compared one woman with breast cancer to another woman without breast cancer. 41% of the time, the woman without breast cancer had a higher (more risky) value than did the woman with breast cancer.

Classic LCIS.If knowledge can create problems, it is not through ignorance that we can solve them- Isaac Asimov Dx 12/8/2005, LCIS, ER+/PR- Surgery 1/24/2006 Lumpectomy: Left Hormonal Therapy 7/15/2006 Tamoxifen pills (Nolvadex, Apo-Tamox, Tamofen, Tamone)
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Jan 31, 2008 11:53AM HeatherBLocklear wrote:

Thanks to both for your informative article/posting. My breast doctor also claims that BC rates went down for the first time in the early 2000s because doctors were taking post-menopausal women off HRT. In his opinion, the steady rise in the percentage of women getting BC until then was at least partially due to synthetic hormones, not merely to aging (although that, of course, also factors in).

Annie (looking for a way to get younger).

Annie Camel Tail Dx 2/23/2008, IDC, Stage IV, mets, ER-/PR-, HER2-

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