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Topic: What are the statistics of new cancer a third time?

Forum: Just Diagnosed — Discuss next steps, options, and resources.

Posted on: Dec 7, 2019 08:25PM

kossmore wrote:

I have breast cancer again after a lumpectomy 14 years ago. Had radiation, chemo and pills for 5 years. The breast surgeon said that if I do another lumpectomy, chances are 85% it will return in a few years and 65% in the other breast. I have been searching the internet to confirm the statistics but no luck.


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Dec 7, 2019 10:24PM Betrayal wrote:

Hi kossmore:

I do not have a definitive answer for you but the lack of information on your last experience with BC would make it hard to offer advice. If I were you I would be seeking a second opinion pronto. I do not know where these stats came from but I would want confirmation that they are valid before I made any decision about surgery. What did your biopsy show?

Consider adding information about your last BC and this bout so others could offer you advice based on that data. I hope you get the answers you seek. Support is available on this site. Good luck.

Dx 1/7/2016, DCIS/ILC/IDC, Left, 1cm, Stage IA, Grade 1, 0/1 nodes, ER+/PR+, HER2- Surgery 1/31/2016 Lymph node removal: Sentinel Surgery 1/31/2016 Lumpectomy: Left Surgery 3/3/2016 Lumpectomy: Left Radiation Therapy 3/30/2016 Whole-breast: Breast Hormonal Therapy 6/24/2016 Arimidex (anastrozole) Hormonal Therapy 5/18/2017 Femara (letrozole)
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Dec 8, 2019 12:26AM Beesie wrote:

kossmore, how old are you? And do you know if this diagnosis is thought to be a local recurrence, or a new primary? A recurrence would be if some cancer cells from your original diagnosis remained and developed again into breast cancer in the same location of the same breast. A new primary would be an unrelated breast cancer that newly developed in either breast. After 14 years, a new primary is more likely, but a recurrence is certainly still a possibility. Since you mention a lumpectomy, and since rads can't be done twice on the same breast, is this diagnosis in the other breast? Or is it in the same breast and you are considering a lumpectomy with no rads?

For those of us diagnosed at a young or relatively young age, the chance that we will be diagnosed with a second new primary breast cancer is higher than most people think. All women face their highest risk to develop breast cancer when they are in their 60s and 70s, and for those of us diagnosed previously at a younger age, our risk during those years is about double that of someone who's never had breast cancer before - that's what my oncologist told me and the studies I've read seem to support that.

But then a third diagnosis? There aren't many women affected by this so I would be surprised if there are any studies on it. But that doesn't mean that the risk might not be quite high to be diagnosed a third time, after a second diagnosis. I think age would be a very big factor - although our risk is higher when we are older, it is also true that we have fewer years ahead in which we could be diagnosed again. In other words, in another 14 years, will you be closer to 65 or will you be closer to 85? That makes a big difference on your risk to be diagnosed again.

That said, the figures your surgeon gave you sound extremely high, if he is talking about the risk of a third new primary. If he is talking about recurrence risk, and if you have a lumpectomy without rads and have an aggressive cancer, an 85% local recurrence risk might be right. But recurrence risk wouldn't impact the other breast, which could only be affected by a new primary and I can't imagine that risk being as high as 65%.

So what your surgeon said is confusing. Perhaps you should talk to a Medical Oncologist to get another opinion.

“No power so effectually robs the mind of all its powers of acting and reasoning as fear.” Edmund Burke
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Dec 8, 2019 09:02AM kossmore wrote:

Betrayal, I don't have the info on the first go round only that this new one is the opposite. I will be adding more info about both after I get print outs. Accidentally included them with other doctor pages when filling out their paperwork. We have an appointment with a plastic surgeon this week.

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Dec 8, 2019 09:13AM kossmore wrote:

Bessie, I am 66 years old now, was 52 the first time. This is a new cancer in the same breast as far as I know the only thing similar is they are very aggressive. The surgeon said it could return in a few years so then I would be 70 ish. This time the only thing they can do is a surgery of some kind since my body did not react well to any of the treatments, not even the lumpectomy.

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Dec 8, 2019 03:28PM Craftylife61 wrote:

I am concerned about the same thing. I was diagnosed with triple negative cancer in 2014 in the right breast. I did lumpectomy, chemo and radiation. I was just diagnosed with a new primary triple negative cancer in my left breast last week. My surgeon said doing the same treatment as before would be okay since I responded well to treatment (5 years with no re-occurence). But I have the option of a double mastectomy to lessen my chances of a third primary cancer in either breast. They think my tumor suppressor genes aren't working. Sigh. I'm really struggling with what to do.

Take the trip, buy the shoes, eat the cake. Dx 4/2014, IDC, Right, 2cm, Stage IIB, Grade 3, ER-/PR-, HER2- (FISH) Surgery 5/3/2014 Lumpectomy: Right; Lymph node removal: Right, Sentinel, Underarm/Axillary Dx 12/4/2019, IDC, Left, <1cm, Stage IB, Grade 3, 0/1 nodes, ER-/PR-, HER2- Surgery 1/1/2020 Lumpectomy: Left; Lymph node removal: Sentinel Chemotherapy Radiation Therapy Breast Chemotherapy AC + T (Taxotere)
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Dec 9, 2019 07:13PM edwards750 wrote:

Crafty - my sister’s came back 3 times and the last time it ended her life. She was DX in 2012 with lobular BC and has a MX one year after me. I had IDC. Four years later hers came back to the MX scar. This past April it came back with a vengeance. She had radiation and chemo but it didn’t help. She only made it through 2 chemo treatments. Her cancer was aggressive and attacked her liver and kidneys. It was horrific and heartbreaking.

Diane

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Dec 10, 2019 07:38AM kossmore wrote:

Is there a place on this site that explains all of these terms everyone is using? I tried searching but did not find much.

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Dec 10, 2019 07:37PM Craftylife61 wrote:

Edwards750, I am so sorry to hear about your sister. I just lost my brother two months ago to kidney disease. I can't imagine losing my sister; we are so close.

I went to the plastic surgeon today and again was told there would be no difference in surviving this new cancer between lumpectomy and mastectomy. I also talked to the genetics counselor and they are going to do a broader panel of testing on me. Right now the only thing showing up is a VUS on ATM gene. I am opting for the lumpectomy. I am at peace with my decision.

Kossmore, there is an explanation of terms somewhere. I think it is on the main site. Do a search.

Take the trip, buy the shoes, eat the cake. Dx 4/2014, IDC, Right, 2cm, Stage IIB, Grade 3, ER-/PR-, HER2- (FISH) Surgery 5/3/2014 Lumpectomy: Right; Lymph node removal: Right, Sentinel, Underarm/Axillary Dx 12/4/2019, IDC, Left, <1cm, Stage IB, Grade 3, 0/1 nodes, ER-/PR-, HER2- Surgery 1/1/2020 Lumpectomy: Left; Lymph node removal: Sentinel Chemotherapy Radiation Therapy Breast Chemotherapy AC + T (Taxotere)
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Dec 10, 2019 07:40PM - edited Dec 10, 2019 07:40PM by MinusTwo

Here is the link for the abbreviations:

https://community.breastcancer.org/forum/131/topic...

Edited to make it an active link

2/15/11 BMX-DCIS 2SNB clear-TEs; 9/15/11-410gummies; 3/20/13 recurrance-5.5cm,mets to lymphs, Stage IIIB IDC ER/PRneg,HER2+; TCH/Perjeta/Neulasta x6; ALND 9/24/13 1/18 nodes 4.5cm; AC chemo 10/30/13 x3; herceptin again; Rads Feb2014
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Dec 10, 2019 09:02PM edwards750 wrote:

Thank you Crafty. Sorry about your brother.

Diane


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Dec 11, 2019 08:03AM kossmore wrote:

Edwards750, sorry about your sister. My BS said that it can come back the third time pretty quick after the second time.

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