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Oct 17, 2019 02:32PM
More support to 'we don't really know': This recent paper found/opined about the Tyrer-Cuzck model (which was one of the few/if any/only models that included women with classic LCIS)
A total of 1192 women with a median follow-up of 6 years (interquartile range [IQR] 2.5-9.9) were included...
Patients with prior or concurrent breast cancer, a BRCA mutation, receiving chemoprevention, or with pleomorphic LCIS were excluded.
The Tyrer-Cuzick model is not accurate and may overpredict IBC risk for women with LCIS, and therefore should not be used for breast cancer risk assessment in this high-risk population.
There used to be a model that one radiologist posted (it must have been removed), where when I was diagnosed with LCIS I could get up to a 85% breast cancer risk (without anti-hormonals.) I know some LCIS posters years ago (before these studies were published, so of course could not know about them) made their treatment decisions because of the Tyrer-Cuzick model.
Another thread complaining about the inaccuracies with the Tyrer-Cuzick model:
In any model, you have to compare the results of the model with the specific patient population you are studying. In the case of classic (let alone pleomorphic) LCIS, there isn't a whole lot of data.
Off topic: The uncertainty is anxiety provoking, but, who knows, tomorrow we might be run over by a car or have a stroke or heart attack. Life is unpredictable, but most people want more control/certainty. We may throw away the idea that we might be struck by a meteor tonight, but once you get a diagnosis that you are at risk for a big problem, most people understand anxiety better.
It makes you have empathy for the people who are given a very dismal, terminal diagnosis (in other words, a much worse prognosis than LCIS patients.) I can see that if you are given a very dismal, terminal diagnosis, it must be really, really hard to be in the position of having to comfort other people. I had a relative who was brought in to the ER,and was told by her doctor, after seeing her Xrays 'You are not going to get any better'; in other words, she was going to die. (She was a nurse.) Her first words (to her daughter who was with her) after the doctor left the room were "That must have been very hard for the doctor to tell me that." She died within the hour. I'm sure that wouldn't be my first reaction if I was told I was going to die.
Classic LCIS.If knowledge can create problems, it is not through ignorance that we can solve them- Isaac Asimov
12/8/2005, LCIS, ER+/PR-
1/24/2006 Lumpectomy: Left
7/15/2006 Tamoxifen pills (Nolvadex, Apo-Tamox, Tamofen, Tamone)