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Will 30% of Early Stage (1-IIIA) go on to metastasize??

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  • lago
    lago Member Posts: 11,653
    edited February 2016

    If you really are interested in these stats becoming available you should sign up for some of these studies: http://www.armyofwomen.org/currentresearch


  • ShetlandPony
    ShetlandPony Member Posts: 3,063
    edited February 2016

    Thank you, BarredOwl.

    Cubbie, I tried to think of what to write back but "Grrrrr" is all that comes out!.

  • barbe1958
    barbe1958 Member Posts: 7,605
    edited February 2016

    Well, without reading all the responses, I can say I certainly fell into that 30%. I knew if from the start, kind of. As Stage I, I didn't get any other treatment except double mastectomies. No AI, no Tamoxifen, no rads, no chemo. My surgeon even said to "save the big guns until next time". I got 7 years out of my surgery (Dec 2008) and if I had done other treatments I might be saying the same thing anyway. So now I'm on Arimidex and getting rads shortly.

    Stage III gals think they're "near the edge" but i truly believe it's the "early stage" gals that are at most risk as some aren't taken as seriously.

  • lago
    lago Member Posts: 11,653
    edited February 2016

    barbe if you are hormone positive I do believe they prescribe AI/Tamoxifen, at least now they do even if you are stage I.

  • barbe1958
    barbe1958 Member Posts: 7,605
    edited February 2016

    Iago!! Great to see you, you look wonderfull, dahlin!

    I am now Stage IV anyway, so it's all moot.

  • meow13
    meow13 Member Posts: 1,363
    edited February 2016

    Stage is really not as important anymore the make up of the tumor and how it responses to treatment is more relevant.

  • barbe1958
    barbe1958 Member Posts: 7,605
    edited February 2016

    Meow, I used to say that for years until I became Stage IV, now stage matters! SickTired

  • meow13
    meow13 Member Posts: 1,363
    edited February 2016

    barbe, I pray you will join the many stage 4 bc sisters that achieve NED and live for many many years.

    We need a cure, damn this disease.

  • barbe1958
    barbe1958 Member Posts: 7,605
    edited February 2016

    Thanks...

  • lago
    lago Member Posts: 11,653
    edited February 2016

    barbe1958 Good to see you too. Not good regarding stage IV but Remember Marybe? She too was hormone positive. She was a 21 year survivor! BTW I do have several friends that were diagnosed the same time as me that are NED. One of them had brain mets last year. She got cyber-knife and is still NED… watching all her children grow up.

    and they are still coming up with new shit all the time.

  • farmerlucy
    farmerlucy Member Posts: 596
    edited February 2016

    BB - I think for triple neg the recurrence rates drops a lot after five years. While low at five years for er/pr pos it doesn't change much to year ten, and may even increase a bit by those who only did five years of HT. I use the predict.uk site because it has a conditional survival calculator that I can play with if I'm in need of reassurance.

  • farmerlucy
    farmerlucy Member Posts: 596
    edited February 2016

    oops - it is not predict it is this one http://lifemath.net/cancer/breastcancer/condsurv/i...


  • bluepearl
    bluepearl Member Posts: 133
    edited February 2016

    Must remember that stage 1 encompasses women with more serious prognostic factors like Her2+, larger tumour but under 2 cm, grade 3, triple negatives, node positive. Grouped together, that is what it is going to look like STATISTICALLY. You can be a stage 1 with a very small 4mm tumour, which means you would unlikely be in that 30% category. A 1.9cm tumour that was pr-er- and her+, OR triple negative, OR her2+ would bump you up as well. Even having Er+Pr- her2- could bump you up a bit because of the pr-. That said, no one knows for sure how anyone will do. Some women have gotten mets after a very good prognostic BC and others have lived long lives with the very worst prognostic factors. Hormone positive cancers can recur after many years....20...even 30....but then, you could die in a car crash, heart attack, lightening bolt.

  • barbe1958
    barbe1958 Member Posts: 7,605
    edited February 2016

    BB, ER+ cancer TENDS to be slow growing. So after 5 years, there's been enough time to see if anything has been growing. Hormone therapy was 5 years and then people recurred, now it's 10 years. I'm on it for life, now, so maybe that's what they'll do for everyone in time.

    Iago, I know, I know...the crap shoot of the whole thing! Kills me! (Gee, I gotta stop saying stuff like that)

  • lago
    lago Member Posts: 11,653
    edited February 2016

    Barbe someone has to fall in the statistic. My known risk of getting BC at my age with all my risk factors was less then 2% (below average). But it happened. I just wish no one I knew would get mets. Hang in there and please keep in touch. As you know I'm not on the IV boards.

  • barbe1958
    barbe1958 Member Posts: 7,605
    edited February 2016

    Early detection means nothing except the fact that you know sooner.

  • Artista928
    Artista928 Member Posts: 1,458
    edited February 2016

    I'm not sure about that. Early detection means for many that they get tx sooner before it has a chance to progress.

  • meow13
    meow13 Member Posts: 1,363
    edited February 2016

    Barb, I'm with you the awareness campaigns make it sound like if you catch bc early you will be cured. I can't tell you how many friends believe I'm cured. I just pray it doesn't come back.

  • minustwo
    minustwo Member Posts: 13,264
    edited February 2016

    I think we've had enough of awareness. Let's start spending that money on a cure.

    BTW - I have no idea what my stats might really be and gave up even trying to guess. It doesn't make me happy to have a loose end that I don't know &/or can't control, but WTH. This whole disease never gets to the point that we could EVER be sure it will never come back. (hmmm, lots of double negatives!!) It's a darn 'shape shifter'.

  • GG27
    GG27 Member Posts: 1,308
    edited February 2016

    I had early detection of one tumor in one breast. They did a mammogram & ultrasound the week before my BMX & both completely missed the 30 tumors scattered across my chest and the other largish one in my other breast. I don't believe that mammograms do as much as has been hyped that they do.

  • traveltext
    traveltext Member Posts: 1,054
    edited February 2016

    Lots of great posts on this very interesting topic. BCO is my rock for negotiating this disease.

    When my onc told me that a 10mm tumor hosts one billion cancer cells, I realised that while my comprehensive treatment would boost my survival odds, a recurrence was, eventually, very likely. 

    I therefore am ignoring prognosis stats and understand that, for me, holding off BC involves staying on Tamoxifen and nurturing a healthy immune system through stress control, diet and exercise. And having fun, of course.


  • barbe1958
    barbe1958 Member Posts: 7,605
    edited February 2016

    Mine was caught early. So early that all I got was surgery (double masts) and nothing else because "it was caught early". Now I'm stage IV. So what did I gain by catching it early? Did I mention mine was caught early? Am I bitter...sure.

  • divinemrsm
    divinemrsm Member Posts: 6,560
    edited February 2016
    There does seem to be propaganda out there that early detection = cure. This is a topic of discussion on the Pinktober Revolution thread on these boards that is most active during September and October. The general public is often deceived. Yes, caught early, the percentage you may reoccur or metastasize is lessened. It is of no comfort if, like Barbe, you progress.

    I was dx stage iv from the start, but prior to dealing with bc, I'd always thought if you made it to that magical five year mark you were home free. And it's not necessarily true.
  • lago
    lago Member Posts: 11,653
    edited February 2016

    GG27 if you have dense tissue, really small tumors or a tumor that is hidden behind another the Mammo isn't going to see it. MRI should help but still not conclusive till they get in there. This is why my surgeon always does an MRI of both breasts before surgery. That's how he found the LCIS in the "good" breast. Also in my case not only did I have dense tissue but it was in the posterior region. I do believe the radiologist that read my mammo/US was a bit of an idiot/blind. S/he (never came out to talk to me) stated on the form "suspicious but not typical of breast cancer. Tumor was a total of 6.5cm with non invasive part in my barely non full 34Bs. My surgeon knew just looking at the mammogram (they sent over the wrong US twice. Glad I went to a different place to get treated than where I got the mammo/us!

    Barbe1958 no chemo might have been fine but they should have offered you tamoxifen or AIs! The same thing happened to Marybe (was a 21 year survivor). 6 years after her diagnosis she recurred. She was never offered hormone suppression therapy.


  • badger
    badger Member Posts: 24,938
    edited February 2016

    As the daughter of a mom with bc, I got a baseline mammo at age 30 then a screening mammo every five yrs. Fast forward 20 yrs to 2009 when I got my first digital mammo. It picked up an area of concern not seen on prior mammos using older technology. That area turned out to be a cluster of microcalcifications that was surrounding and hiding a 2.5 cm tumor. Who knows how long it had been there, lurking unseen and unfelt. Had micro-mets in one sentinel node so did chemo but no rads. Was in peri-menopause at dx so did five years of tamox and now on anastrozole (generic for Arimidex). Just saw my onc and good for another six months. He says I'm cured but I say I'm NED - no evidence of disease. The fear has become less and some days I don't even think about bc but I will never not worry.

    Per her request to share and to learn, here is Holley Kitchen's video about MBC https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDQ0FjP7J-c

  • divinemrsm
    divinemrsm Member Posts: 6,560
    edited February 2016

    Her video is so well done.

    RIP Holley

    http://www.fox29.com/news/73685687-story


  • barbe1958
    barbe1958 Member Posts: 7,605
    edited February 2016

    Iago, my DH and I were going to drive down to Marybe for the American Thanksgiving and have a cook-off. Then she passed too soon. I wasn't offered AI's when I was first diagnosed, but knew it would be my first line of defense when/if I recurred.

  • Artista928
    Artista928 Member Posts: 1,458
    edited February 2016

    I had very dense large breasts (DD). Mammo showed something suspicious. Ultrasound showed weird shape. Biopsy confirmed weird shape and it was cancer. Was sent for MRI of both breasts. The 2 cm reading initially became 4 cm. On the table bs pulled out 7 cm. 3 cm was hidden from MRI. So until you are on the table and beyond, you just never know. Wouldn't it be nice if there was a definitive test that could say you are going to be NED and not have this other shoe dropping thought in your head until you die from something else??

  • crazystupidbreastcancer
    crazystupidbreastcancer Member Posts: 5
    edited February 2016

    Barbe1958, ER+ breast cancer is actually split into two categories: Luminal A and Luminal B. Luminal A (tends to be slow growing, low Ki-67, lower grade). Luminal B is ER/PR+, HER2- (but can also include triple positive); tends to be high grade, more aggressive. I don't think researchers knew about the specific molecular subtypes of breast cancer until about 10 years ago.

  • muska
    muska Member Posts: 224
    edited February 2016

    Crazystupidbreastcancer, I am not sure what you are trying to say by mentioning Luminal A & Luminal B. Has the standard of care changed because they now know about Luminal A vs Luminal B? Are you suggesting the stats should be gathered separately for those two sub-types?