I say YES. YOU say NO....Numero Tre! Enjoy!
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(CNN)With just 100 days(!) until the 2020 election, the day itself will be here before you know it. Here's where things stand in the races for the White House, the Senate and the House with 100 days left in the campaign.
*The House:
While Republicans may have started 2019 with hopes that they might be able to pick up the 18 seats they needed to retake the majority they lost in 2018, those hopes are gone.
At this point, given President Donald Trump's dismal poll numbers nationally -- and especially in the suburbs -- the goal for House Republicans is to avoid a sort of landslide loss of seats that might relegate them to the minority for the next decade.
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It's not entirely clear if they will be able to avoid that nightmare scenario.
Read MoreEarlier this month, the Cook Political Report, a non-partisan campaign tipsheet, moved 20(!) seats in a single day -- all in Democrats' favor.Wrote House editor David Wasserman of Republicans:
"Now they're just trying to avoid a repeat of 2008, when they not only lost the presidency but got swamped by Democrats' money and lost even more House seats after losing 30 seats and control two years earlier. For the first time this cycle, Democrats have at least as good a chance at gaining House seats as Republicans on a net basis."
The problems for Republicans are compounded by the massive fundraising disparity they face.
According to the Center for Responsive Politics, Democratic House candidates have raised $457 million so far in this election to $365 million for their GOP counterparts as of July 1. And the gap is even wider in the most competitive races; in a baker's dozen of most competitive races with primaries in June and July, Democratic incumbents have nearly nine(!) times more on hand -- $40 million to $4.5 million -- than the best-funded GOP challengers.
Combine a declining national environment with that sort of fundraising problem and you have a recipe for House disaster for Republicans.
*The Senate:
At the start of the 2020 election, you'd have been hard-pressed to find a single national political handicapper willing to predict that Democrats would retake the chamber on November 3.
While the raw numbers looked good -- 23 Republican seats up as compared to 12 for Democrats -- the landscape was less favorable for the minority party. Just two Republican incumbents -- Sens. Cory Gardner in Colorado and Susan Collins in Maine -- are running in states Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Which means 21 of the 23 GOP seats are in places Trump won four years ago.
And yet, as the election has worn on, the outlook has shifted considerably -- thanks, in large part, to Trump's rapidly declining fortunes and struggles by GOP incumbents to distance themselves from him.
In Arizona, Sen. Martha McSally (R) looks dead in the water in her race against former astronaut Mark Kelly (D). Gardner is in deep trouble against former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D). And Collins is facing by far the biggest challenge of her political career in the form of state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D).
And those three seats are just the start of Senate Republicans' problems. Both seats in Georgia are in peril, as are North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, Montana Sen. Steve Daines and the open seat in Kansas. (Yes, Kansas!)
By contrast, Democrats have only one real issue: Alabama Sen. Doug Jones (D), who will face off against former Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville in the fall. Jones, because of the state's strong Republican lean, could well do everything perfectly and still lose. (While Republicans talk about the vulnerability of Sen. Gary Peters in Michigan, there's not much evidence that race is going to be all that close.)
What it all means is this: Democrats have a WIDE playing field on which to attempt to win the three seats they need if Biden wins the White House and four if Trump gets reelected. And at this point, they have to be considered favorites to do so, which is remarkable given where this two-year cycle started.
*The White House:
There's simply no way to sugarcoat this for fans of the President. If the presidential election were held today, not only would Trump lose the White House, but he would do so by a large margin.
The last time that Trump led former Vice President Joe Biden in a national poll was in mid-February; the CNN poll of polls shows Biden with a 52% to 40% edge over the incumbent.
The situation in swing states is actually more dire for Trump. He currently trails Biden in every single swing state from 2016 and appears to be in serious jeopardy in several longtime Republican friendly states, like Texas and Arizona.
There's no secret as to the "why" here. A majority of the public disapproves of Trump's handling of the coronavirus pandemic. And the coronavirus pandemic is the dominant issue for voters -- especially suburban women who Trump badly needs to do well among to have a chance of winning nationally.
As his ratings on dealing with the pandemic have dropped, his overall job approval numbers and his standing in hypothetical matchups with Biden have tanked as well.
If the problem is obvious, the solution is less so. Even if Trump tries a new tone on the virus -- as he did this week, touting the necessity of mask-wearing and speaking more soberly in daily briefings on Covid-19 -- it's not entirely clear that would change people's minds about him.
A Washington Post-ABC News poll released earlier this month showed Biden with a 20-point edge on which candidate voters trusted more to deal with coronavirus. And the voters who believe Trump has mishandled the crisis are far more passionate in that view than those who believe he has done well in dealing with it.
If past is prologue, it is very hard to change people's minds about an issue that they care deeply about. We believe what we believe and, generally speaking, that's it.
That's the reality Trump faces 100 days out from his bid for a second term. And no amount of tweets or Fox News interviews is going to change it.
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What beautiful dogs Gramma Ruth.
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Here is Joe with the dog the Bidens adopted a couple years ago. Major was a rescue they had been fostering.
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Thanks, Illinois. They are sweet but VERY energetic dogs! DH & I get lots of exercise when we take them for walks!
Spookie, maybe you could get a tee shirt made that says, "Major for First Dog!".
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😆😆
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Too funny!! Now he thinks his pet news network
has turned on him. 0 -
Having a dog or cat in the WH gives people the impression that the occupant is a somewhat decent person. I can't imagine any dog going anywhere willing with Trump
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He’d probably kick it.
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Ruth: Love the dogs. We have had 4 liver and white dalmatians and of those, two were rescues. So we are a committed "dal" family and they do have great energy with quirky personalities which is why we love them. Our last one lived 15 years and 2 months meaning we actually owned her for 15 years. She sledded with my children (had to be on the front of the tobaggon), was the goalie for my DS when he played hockey (made him use a tennis ball rather than a puck to save her teeth), she loved soccer and could mouth the ball and swam in our above ground pool with two pairs of socks on each foot. Our current one came from a kill shelter, had kennel cough and a skin disorder when we got her and will be 12 in November. She still has her puppy moments and is my constant companion. She lives companionably with 3 cats.
Trump's cruelty to people is evident in his response to Covid-19 (and his general disrespect for women especially strong ones) so why wish a defenseless animal on him? He is the poster child for a defense mechanism called displacement where instead of kicking his dog when angered, he lashes out at humans and either blames them or demeans them. Such a sad excuse for a human being.
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I am actually putting together a little talk about the pets of presidents for a local historical society I belong to (entitled 'Presidential Pet Tales'). A couple fun quotes:
Democrat Woodrow Wilson proclaimed, "If a dog will not come to you after having looked you in the face, you should go home and examine your conscience." Republican Calvin Coolidge declared that "any man who does not like dogs and want them about, does not deserve to be in the White House."
Donald Trump is the first president in 120 years not to have a dog, and only one of 3 (the other two being James Polk & Andrew Johnson), not to have a pet at all. I leave you to draw the appropriate conclusions from that fact.
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While dogs have magnanimous souls somehow when I think of Trump I feel like a lot of dogs would actually reject him somewhat. I feel like they would sense the hollowness of this man, the utter lack of warmth and would possibly be one of the few people a dog might actually reject. It is just an impression that came over me and I have no idea if it could be so. I'm just glad the thought does not occur. He does not deserve that much love and devotion -- he certainly is unable to give it.
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Ruth
"Presidential Pet Tales". A talk most animal lovers would I'm sure truly enjoy. Good for you. 0 -
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Spookiesmom, there's a segment in Mary Trump's book that reveals his behavior with his kids. At "The House" (where his parents lived) he would sit with Ivanka on his lap, and have Eric and Jr. wrestle in front of him. Whoever of the two lost he would kick.
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I do not think Trump had too deep of feelings for his children. Possibly liking Ivanka a bit better due to her being a girl. As to Tiffany ( Marla Maples was the mother ) no one said but I'm just assuming since we hear so little that MM chose not to encourage much interaction and Trump didn't seem to mind that either. Maybe something in the divorce agreement, who knows. On some hand I feel sorrow for these Trump children -- they don't seem too bright ( chips off the block etc. ) but they had little chance I think to be what they might have been. Too easy, too early -- just like Trump. They likely will spend a useless life and maybe have a bankruptcy or two or three or who knows, maybe worse.
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Trump Cancels Trip To Yankee Stadium Because He's "Busy" Fighting COVID
Trump claimed that he was too busy fighting the coronavirus pandemic to throw out the first pitch at Yankee Stadium even though he has spent the weekend golfing.
Read more »Trump Melts Down And Demands Pennsylvania Not Vote For Biden
Trump is crumbling at a rapid rate and now demanding that Pennsylvania voters do not vote for Joe Biden in November.
Read more »I think the first article was right on. Trump didn't like that Fauci got invited to throw out a ball so away to New York to upstage Fauci only to recall that for sure he wouldn't get booed and the only people watching would be on a t.v. in their homes. No adulation to lap up there. Became not worth it.
Trump clearly can't put two and two together. The one place to disregard Biden would be Pennsylvania period. And what would make you think you could break all promises, let a pandemic happen and all the rest and then think Pennsylvania is going to welcome you with open arms. Then have a tantrum -- I'm sure it endears them more Trump. You are a simpleton.
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They are all getting weird with their ideas the closer we get:
Devin Nunes Goes Full Racist And Says Democrats Are Against White People
Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) went total racist and said that Democrats are against white people because they are always talking about racism.
Read more »I do think it is no time to let down the guard at all, but it does seem to me that the thinking of so many of the Reps. get more odd and chaotic at time goes on. They are also aware that they are being pulled under so far by Trump and I'm sure that is bringing plenty of pressure to bear as well. Not that I've ever have considered it, especially the last 30 yrs. or so but I'm so happy I'm not a Reps. and never really wanted to be one although there was a time or two when I considered that the Reps. candidate might be the right one --- just as some of the Reps. are vowing to vote for Biden. Nunes in this case sounds as cracked as Trump.
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I don't know if its there or not, but I like it. It says what ought to be said.
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Ha! I knew he would chicken out of throwing that pitch. Too busy fighting Covid in between golf games, tweeting, identifying elephants etc.
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'Walls' of Protesters Fight Tear Gas with Leaf Blower Dads
Posted: 26 Jul 2020 12:30 PM PDT
Portland protesters are fighting back against tear gas and forming walls' of veterans, lawyers, nurses. Every night for more than a week, federal agents have been unleashing a barrage of tear gas on crowds of demonstrators ... "Hey guys, don't panic, don't panic," the man said ... "All you first-timers out here, it's just tear gas. Everybody just relax." As if on cue, a brigade of orange-shirted men with leaf blowers descended on the cloud, revved their engines and blew the tear gas away. The crowd cheered. "Thank you leaf-blower dads!" shouted a young woman.There is a little music to be heard here. Makes me wonder if the next thing will be the Camo Bfrigade snaching leaf blowers or what. Of course, at first I sort of laughed but by golly, I shouldn't have. Democrats look for positive solutins to a lot of problems -- this was a great one. Makes me feel I should donate my leaf blower to Porland.
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I wonder about this too, and i think anyone reasonable would keep a close eye, but I also feel a lot of us are in a syndrome of 'we' were so wrong the first time. Silver does have statistics and graphs and lots of comparison information at hand, but I think I'm going to hope and try not to get sucked into that syndrome too far. After all, the economy is crappy, the death toll just keeps mounting, Trump golfs and watches television as much as ever --- along with pouting, whining, calling names and lying big time. It is not like he has found anything positive to date. So catious, but open to blur tsunami as well.
Nate Silver: 'I do Not Buy that Trump's Fate is Sealed'
Posted: 26 Jul 2020 12:02 PM PDT
FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver said on ABC's "This Week" that while President Trump's reelection bid is "clearly in trouble" due to his dismal coronavirus approval ratings and polling in swing states, he does not believe the president's "fate is sealed."0 -
Another negative Trump indicator.
80% Say U.S. Headed in Wrong Direction
Posted: 26 Jul 2020 08:32 AM PDT
With the November election 100 days away, more Americans say the country is heading in the wrong direction than at any previous point in Donald Trump's presidency, putting the incumbent in a perilous position as his reelection bid against Democrat Joe Biden enters a pivotal stretch.0 -
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Jackie,
You never really know when you're seeing someone for the very last time. Remember to make every moment count, they say. Remember to tell them you love them, they say. But when you meet someone who is so loving and so kind, you don't have to remember a thing.
I remember the first time I met Congressman John Lewis. It was at the Southern Poverty Law Center's Civil Rights Memorial in Montgomery, Alabama. He was leading a Faith and Politics Civil Rights Pilgrimage for congressional leaders, as he did almost every year as part of his commemoration of the 1965 voting rights march from Selma to Montgomery, in which he and others were beaten by Alabama state troopers on the Edmund Pettus Bridge.
That day in Montgomery, as the delegation made its way from the Dexter Avenue King Memorial Baptist Church and neared us, I saw him. Flanked by children carrying a wreath to be laid on the Memorial, the congressman looked somber and serious.
When I approached to lead the group to their places around the Memorial, he smiled and said, "Thank you." I watched and listened in awe as he talked about seminal events in his life that are etched on the Memorial, which honors 40 martyrs of the civil rights movement. Before he departed that day, I hugged him and said, "Thank you."
As part of his "Celebration of Life," the congressman is taking a final tour through his native Alabama this weekend. I have to be there. One last time at Brown Chapel. One last time across the Edmund Pettus Bridge. One last time together in Montgomery.
We've placed a wreath in his memory at the Memorial. Later today, I'll position a poster with a picture of him at the spot where he once stood. We'll gather to remember what he tried to convey to us all these years: "Do not get lost in a sea of despair. Be hopeful, be optimistic. Our struggle is not the struggle of a day, a week, a month, or a year, it is the struggle of a lifetime."
Each time Congressman Lewis visited the Memorial, we repeated our greetings and goodbyes. Each time more special than the last. I don't know when it happened, but I came to add "I love you." And you know what? He said, "I love you, too."
Today, I'll say those words one last time.
Lecia Brooks
SPLC Chief of Staff0 -
Reports are still unclear as to whether or not Hurricane Hanna blew down any portion of the wall. The pic in the meme and a short video that’s all over appear to have been taken several months ago.
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Yes, have seen that. Given the fact of lies from them, I’m inclined to think it’s true. And does Texas get storms like that without a hurricane
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Sinclair Broadcasting reversed its decision to air the Plandemic story...for now. They say they have to rework the segment. "The segment ignited significant controversy after CNN reported on it Friday....SB stations across the country started receiving complaints from viewers who requested they not air it." An onscreen graphic throughout the segment included the headline "Did Dr. Fauci create Covid 19?" SB defended wanting to air it saying they're committed to airing diverse viewpoints. Omg. Insert some strong cuss words here.
The memes...! Oh, I hope many Republicans aren't fooled and vote Biden. Great yard sign.
Ted Yoho. What a yoohoo. I don't see any confirmation yet that he won't seek reelection but I hope it's true. He was forced to resign from the board of a Christian organization. AOC knocked her speech out of the park when she called him out publicly for his sexist slurs.
Bingo! The Great Carnac figuring out what Putin has on Trump!
TrumpVirus. Yes.
All that is to say, I agree with Nate Silver. Trump's fate is not sealed. 99 days and counting down. It will really ramp up after Labor Day. Biden's VP pick will also be a major factor in how things continue to unfold. There's still a lot of room for absolutely anything to happen.
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